Every 80 years, America has a Caesarian figure that arises and ushers America into a new era. Trump is merely the latest iteration of this. A rotation of elites occurs and something new is born.
80 years ago, that strong executive figure was FDR.
I thought I was going to be the vice president, but instead I find myself under the thumb of a dictator who disregards the Constitution.
Vice President John Nance Garner after his fallout with FDR
FDR’s grip on the Democratic Party is suffocating; he has turned it into a vehicle for his own ambitions rather than a platform for democratic principles.
fellow Democrat Frank Kent
80 years before that, it was Abraham Lincoln.
[Lincoln is] but the fungus from the corrupt womb of bigotry and fanaticism… [a] worse tyrant and more inhuman butcher than has existed since the days of Nero. The man who votes for Lincoln now is a traitor and murderer… And if he is elected to misgovern for another four years, we trust some bold hand will pierce his heart with dagger point for the public goodMarcus Pomeroy, 1863
… a monstrous usurpation, a criminal wrong, and an act of national suicide.
Chicago Tribune, 1863
And 80 years before that it was George Washington.
Monopolies of every kind marked [Washington’s] administration almost in the moment of its commencement. The lands obtained by the revolution were lavished upon partisans; the interests of the disbanded soldier was sold to the speculator; injustice was acted under the pretence of faith; and the chief of the army became the patron of the fraud.
Thomas Paine
… the world will be puzzled to decide whether you are an apostate or an impostor; whether you have abandoned good principles, or whether you ever had any.
And today that is Donald Trump.
The beauty of the US Constitution is that it’s flexible enough to accommodate what Aristotle called the three forms of government; democracy (the rule of many), oligarchy (the rule of a few), and monarchy (the rule of one). The House of Representatives was supposed to be the house of demagogues and populists. The Senate was supposed to be the house of American Aristocracy & Oligarchy. And the Presidency was supposed to be the house of executive power. This tug-and-pull, along with the Judicial System, creates an evolving political structure that adapts every 80 years with a temporary Monarch, who after his retirement, disperses American politics down to the oligarchic and populist level, but within the parameters established by the temporary monarch who transformed the entire system.
In France, they refer to these transformations as “Republics” as in the 1st Republic, 2nd Republic, and so on. In this way, from 1785 to 1865, America lived under the 1st Washington Republic. From 1865 to 1945, America lived under the 2nd Lincoln Republic. And from 1945 to 2025, America lived under the 3rd FDR Republic. In all cases, the strong executive completely ended “business as usual,” created a whole new paradigm, and upon the end of their power, a new elite structure succeeded in suppressing strong executive agency.
For example, Washington threatened to lay siege to Rhode Island if they did not ratify the constitution. He controversially suppressed the Whiskey Rebellion. And he acknowledged white settlers land claims in territories claimed by native tribes. But in the end, Washington’s strong executive power helped unite the 13 colonies into one United States, and paved the path forward for westward expansion.
Lincoln similarly used executive power in a way similar to Washington. He refused to surrender federal facilities in southern lands. He was the first President to use conscription. And he waged a brutal war that wiped out more than 2% of the US population. But in the end, Lincoln’s strong executive power helped maintain the Union, ended slavery, and helped usher in America becoming a continental industrial juggernaut.
FDR’s executive power was also controversial. He threatened to pack the courts if the Supreme Court continued turning down his authority. He created endless federal agencies that had minimal congressional oversight. This led many to argue that FDR was creating an executive branch completely unbound by constitutional rules. But in the end, FDR’s strong executive power led to major infrastructural accomplishments, such as electrifying the continent, creating the pathway to build the interstate highway system, and building a 15 million man army to defeat Japan, Italy, and Germany.
But Washington was followed by Adams. Lincoln was followed by Johnson. And FDR was followed by Truman. All were extremely weak executives, which dispersed the power of the strong executive to the new elite structure. After the weak executive’s 1 term weakness, an opposing party leader emerged, but championing the policies of Washington, Lincoln, and FDR. Jefferson, Grant (same party as Lincoln), and Eisenhower bridged the political divide by accepting core premises of Washington, Lincoln, and FDR – successfully solidifying their transformations in a bipartisan manner.
Trump is the latest iteration of this American model. He will act as a de facto monarch and transform the American system in immeasurable ways. The four primary “hot-button” unresolved issues of our era is America’s foreign commitments, immigration, election laws, and federal responsibilities. In this sense, I see Trump rolling back America’s foreign commitments, reducing immigration problems to negligible levels, enforcing standardized federal election voter ID policies, and pushing education, healthcare, and civil rights laws down to the state jurisdiction.
Vance will likely serve as President from 2028 to 2032, but will be viewed as a weak executive, losing his reelection. And while the Democratic nominee will win in 2032, they will be a completely different type of Democrat than what we’re used to today. For example, Eisenhower was a much different type of Republican than Herbert Hoover. Eisenhower maintained FDR’s larger executive branch system, supported lower tariffs, maintained higher taxes, and maintained a large military presence in Europe and Asia. This would have been heresy to pre-FDR Republicans.
In this sense, I see Democrats evolving over the next 8 years in a way most Democrats today would not be comfortable with. Should Trump successfully de-federalize education, healthcare, and civil rights responsibilities, this will completely uproot the democratic party’s core federal policy priorities. And attempting to re-federalize these programs would be politically untenable post-Trump. Yet, the democratic commitment to restraining wealth inequality, corporate recklessness, and private sector overreach could be the foundation to build upon. And a new cycle of politics will begin.
Other Answers:
Ernest:
Deep apprehension. It wouldn’t be so bad if he didn’t also have both houses of Congress and stacked the Supreme Court as well. If another justice or two retires in the next four years, you can say goodbye to the rule of law in the United States.
This bogus notion that the president is immune from prosecution—based on nothing more than a Nixon era internal memo—has already severely damaged American justice. Who else is immune? The Secretary of Defense? The Chief Justice of the Supreme Court?
I expect an avalanche of unconstitutional legislation that the Supreme Court will support anyway. Separation of church and state? Gone. Miranda warnings? Gone. Birthright citizenship? Gone.
C. Garcia
As an American, I feel REALLY good about the time we’re in. I’ll address culturally, economically, and globally what I think we should be excited about.
Culturally:
There is a movement amongst young men of reclaiming masculinity. My personal desire is that this masculinity is harnessed in positive and productive ways like being protectors and providers. Furthermore, I’d like there for be a newfound respect and dignity for military, police, and blue collar/labor jobs.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/despair-makes-young-us-men-more-conservative-ahead-us-election-poll-shows-2024-04-12/
My concern is that young women are becoming more liberal. However, I do believe that in 5–10 years, this trend will reverse for those women. As women go into their 30s, they will become more inclined to begin families, have children, create stable communities for their children to grow up in and seek financial stability.
For the next generation, young women going into early adulthood will see women in their 30s without stable relationships or homelives, and they will reject the progressive lifestyles of the earlier generation.
As a high school teacher of 10 years, I can attest what is happening now is a product of how teen boys were treated from 2015–2021. If you want genuine reasons why, I can expand in the comment section.
Next:
We have collectively moved away from DEI (Diversity, Equity and Inclusion) efforts. This has been for a greater good. As someone who worked on a college campus for a few years, I can tell you this is very good.
https://www.axios.com/2025/01/16/dei-rollback-companies-amazon-meta-mcdonalds
DEI was almost never used for the purposes of bringing in diverse backgrounds, but instead it was a political club to not hire or to fire people who did not align with progressive view points. At the college I worked at, there were questionnaires in the application process that asked candidates if they would advocate for DEI. Any applicant who rejected it, was immediately not considered.
This idea is expanded to other cultural issues like Trans in women sports and the willingness to accept children’s choices of gender identity.
Where Americans stand on 20 transgender policy issues | YouGov
The DEI rollbacks and transgender positions are a microcosm of where we are culturally. The general feeling is we were much too progressive over the last 6–8 years, and we are beginning to move to more moderate positions.
Economically:
There has been a lot of forecast that the next few years will see a stabilizing of mortgage rates and home prices. The general reporting has been that mortgage rates will stay around 6–7%, prices will keep steady or even decrease by 10%. This is good for young adults that are 25–35 years old that have seen 5 years of exponential increase of home prices. It is extremely discouraging and disheartening to feel home ownership is not an option in the future.
2025-2029 Five-Year Housing Market Predictions
Inflation is projected to be between 2.3–2.7% in the coming two years. This is significantly lower than it has been the past few years. This is also lower than forecasted inflation rates compared to many developed countries around the world, though higher than previously projected due to potential tariff policies.
Trump’s Return Nudges Economists’ Inflation Outlook Higher
We are yet to see what happens with unemployment rates and, more importantly to me, labor participation rates. However, if trends continue, we can expect to see unemployment steady or slightly lower than it is now, and wage increases slightly higher than inflation. This would be an ideal situation for the next 4–6 years, until wages catch up to the inflation hit we saw the last 4 years.
Salary Increase Projections 2025 (and 2024)
Globally:
There are already moves to end the Israel-Hamas war, and potential talks to end the Ukraine-Russia war.
Along with a strengthened NATO and realignment, the fall of the Syrian government and potentially new alliances in the Middle East, we can expect to see a more stable world than we have seen in the last four years.
Furthermore, China is an economic position that makes a war with the US and our allies much less likely than in previous years. The invasion of Taiwan also seems less likely given the economic reality.
I have a close relationship with a few high level officers in the military. They have echoed similar statements that China’s time for an aggressive move is shortly ending. If they don’t move in the next year, it’ll be too late until several years later.
This strongly affirms that the US will remain the world’s super power for a while longer – providing longer world stability under the Pax Americana.
So, overall, as an American, I feel great going into 2025! There is a lot to look forward to.
And hey. Just for fun, turn this upside down.
